It would be an understatement to say that we are all living in unprecedented times. Like many industries—and, indeed, many people—around the world, the film industry, specifically the distribution and exhibition stage of filmmaking, is currently operating in a dark tunnel, and the light at the end seems to grow further and further out of reach as each week passes.
When the first wave of COVID-19 rocked Hollywood back in the spring, film studios had to make the decision to either push back, scale down, or alter completely the release dates and viewing platforms of many of this year’s highly anticipated films. Disney, for example, repeatedly reconfigured its release dates of Mulan, Black Widow, and Soul before finally settling on releasing Mulan on its streaming service back in September, Soul in December, and Black Widow until 2021. Similarly, Christopher Nolan’s Tenet shuffled around different release dates before it eventually became available in the US during Labour Day weekend. Even then, Tenet opened only in select theatres, and what’s more, its tepid box office results were, to every studio head paying attention, a clear indication of America’s still-existing wariness to visit movie theatres. On the opposite end of the spectrum, many films, like Antebellum, Bill and Ted Face the Music, and Greyhound, opted to skip theatrical releases entirely and moved onto streaming platforms.
And these are just the films backed by major studios (aka films with the power and money to be more flexible and are, in the end, guaranteed to be shown to an audience one way—and one day—or another).
For smaller, independent films that rely on the film festival circuit in order to be sold to studios for wider distribution, the path to screening in front of an audience has been more precarious: the Cannes and Telluride Film Festivals each cancelled their programs entirely because of COVID-related lockdowns in their respective regions; the Venice and Toronto International Film Festivals, while allowing some, albeit limited, in-person screenings, scaled back from their typically star-studded events, choosing, instead, to screen the same films simultaneously across multiple theatres so that physical distancing protocols remained intact, which ultimately resulted in a smaller-than-usual line-up of films; and then there were festivals like New York and Tribeca that opted for a completely virtual experience, giving viewers around the world the opportunity to purchase e-tickets that would allow them to log into the festivals’ respective portals and watch their chosen films at specific times and dates.
These distributive and exhibitive changes, to the average movie-goer, will, of course, feel simply like a period of dullness, of stagnancy, of drought in an otherwise bountiful cinematic oasis. To industry professionals, to cinephiles, and to Meryl Streeps alike, however, this new and unprecedented and unforeseen reality—especially now, as the industry finds the first act of awards season slowly coming to a close—raises the question: what’s happening with the Oscars?
The first step on the road to the Oscars, after all, is being seen. In order for a film to be considered for any Academy Award, it must, in fact, play in theatres, for the public, for at least seven days. Film festivals are therefore the best places to be seen: in addition to being a marketplace—where typically bigger studios would buy the distribution rights to your typically smaller studio film and eventually grant you a wide theatrical release—the right film festival, at the right place and time, with the right emotional and political climate, can become a single film’s launchpad for Oscar gold.
Before, for instance, Bradley Cooper premiered his adaptation of A Star is Born in Venice two years ago—indeed, even before the film entered production. The chatter surrounding the film was overall skepticism. Cooper was, after all, an actor jumping behind the camera for the first time, and Lady Gaga had, until then, only done TV acting of the campy, vampiric sort.
When the film finally played to audiences at the 2018 Venice Film Festival, however, a star—Lady Gaga, that is—was literally born! Everyone walked away from that festival with four words in their mouths: “Lady Gaga” and “Best Actress.” And when the film made its appearance at the Toronto International Film Festival a month after, and people saw A Star is Born for the second time, supporters of the film were reaffirmed and skeptics were persuaded that, yes, the film actually was the real deal and Gaga was going for gold. Gaga, in fact, became the festival “it-girl” of that year—young, beautiful, demonstrably multi-talented, and, most importantly, full of heart. As she graced through each festival, each press junket, each photo op, she built on and carried that momentum all the way to her first Oscar nomination for acting and her first win for Original Song.
This is why this year’s Oscar race is more difficult to track: firstly, the constant reshuffling of the deck makes it harder to know which films lie ahead (everyone, for instance, was looking at Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story as being a knockout favourite purely because of Spielberg’s talent and reputation alone, even though it wasn’t supposed to premiere until Christmas later this year, but its studio has since pushed its release date to Christmas 2021). Secondly, and possibly more importantly, with there being a deficit in films actually being released to the public this year (not to mention the fact that the coronavirus is still an ongoing, and a stilly deadly, crisis) many are wondering if they even care, if there still exists a point to this year’s Oscars, if it is, in the face of death, isolation, and fear, still appropriate.
But, of course, as they say in show business: the show must go on. Films, at the end of the day, are still being released, still being watched. The Academy, moreover, still set a date for the upcoming awards ceremony. Predictions, as such, are still being formed.
Sure, there may not be festival chatter as loud, Oscar buzz as electric, or an “it-girl” as adored as in previous years, but if anything remains the same, it is, above it all, hope. And where better to turn to for hope than art. Currently, the 93rd Academy Awards ceremony has been pushed back to April 25th 2021, which was announced back in June, but only time will tell.
Current predictions (in alphabetical order):
BEST PICTURE:
- Da 5 Bloods, The Father
- Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Mank
- Minari
- News of the World
- Nomadland
- On the Rocks
- One Night in Miami
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST DIRECTOR
- David Fincher, Mank
- Paul Greengrass, News of the World
- Regina King, One Night in Miami
- Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
BEST ACTRESS
- Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Jennifer Hudson, Respect
- Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
- Frances McDormand, Nomadland
- Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
BEST ACTOR
- Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
- Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Anthony Hopkins, The Father
- Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
- Stanley Tucci, Supernova
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
- Olivia Colman, The Father
- Amanda Seyfried, Mank
- Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
- Helena Zengel, News of the World
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
- Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Billy Murray, On the Rocks
- Leslie Odom Jr, One Night in Miami
- David Strathairn, Nomadland
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- Mank
- Minari
- Promising Young Woman
- Soul
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- The Father
- Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- News of the World
- Nomadland
- One Night in Miami
